Reference
Latest Updates#
This section logs every change to the report since publication. Entries are newest first. Every item is dated, carries the same confidence tag used throughout, and names the sections it revises — and each one has already been worked into the body at the point of use, so the report reads as a single current document rather than a base text plus errata. This page indexes the changes rather than housing them.
Revision history#
| Version | Date | What changed | Sections revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| v1.0 | Jul 13, 2026 | Original publication — the eight issues, timeline, technical annex. | — |
| **v1.1** | **Jul 17, 2026** | FERC Docket RD26-7-000 makes the NERC standards + registration schedule binding; PJM posts a second consecutive capacity shortfall (2028/29 BRA); New York moratorium takes effect by executive order; White House moves to broaden the Ratepayer Protection Pledge. Context note added on *Trump v. Slaughter*. Corrections: ERCOT's NOGRR282 / NPRR1308 ride-through obligations restated as mandatory within ERCOT rather than absent, and the unaddressed ramp-rate gap added to §4. | Key Takeaways; §2; §3; §4; §7; §8; §9; Watch List; Catalog; References |
| **v1.2** | **Jul 21, 2026** | July 20 resource-adequacy informational reports come due. CAISO's (EL26-71) read into §2 — no systemic California adequacy gap, with the reasons it may not generalise — against MISO's (EL26-70), which proposes an out-of-queue study process and non-firm service. ISO-NE signals a 90-day abeyance and CAISO's calendar assumes one, qualifying the common August 17 deadline. Procedural calendar added to the Federal Frame; PJM backstop procurement window dated and the 2028/29 shortfall stated at 6,831 MW. | Key Takeaways; Report at a Glance; Federal Frame; §2; §7; Watch List; Latest Updates |
| **v1.21** | **Jul 21, 2026** | §3: the Ratepayer Protection Pledge binds hyperscalers rather than colocation developers or utilities, and a commitment to pay is limited by whether the tariff bills incrementally. | §3; References |
| **v1.22** | **Jul 21, 2026** | Reviewer pass. CAISO's filing reduced to a comment and restated to what it says; duplicate PJM backstop watch-list entry consolidated; fourth confidence tag (Speculative) added; compound modifiers standardised; T.11 added on operational impacts; T.4 extended with study practice — RMS versus EMT, load-model parameterisation, inverter-model validation, and the assumptions that invalidate a study. Table K1 added to Key Takeaways: the interconnection sequence end to end, with the failure mode and the governing section at each step. | Key Takeaways; §2; Watch List; Figure D2; Technical Annex |
| **v1.23** | **Jul 21, 2026** | Editorial: reference and catalog counts now computed at build time rather than stated by hand; the guiding principle and the note on judgment set as callout boxes on the About page. | About This Report |
| **v1.24** | **Jul 26, 2026** | Technical-annex expansion and a register pass. Glossary gains grid-forming and grid-following inverters, RMS/positive-sequence simulation, protection coordination, hosting capacity, coincident/non-coincident peak, diversity factor, and capacity accreditation; N-2 folded into the N-1 entry. T.8 gains a protection-coordination paragraph; T.9 a note on which network element binds first; T.4’s simulation-method ladder folds into the Figure T2 caption; new Table T10A maps planning horizons to tools. A copula-reduction pass runs across T.1–T.11. No conclusion changes. | Technical Annex; Glossary; Latest Updates |
| **v1.25** | **Jul 26, 2026** | Five case studies added as boxed notes, each anchored to a primary proceeding: SPP CHILLS conditional service and Ireland’s CRU self-supply connection policy (T.3), PJM’s speculative large-load forecast (T.5), the GridLab–Telos NV Energy flexibility study (T.6), and NERC’s review of the July 2024 voltage-sensitive load loss (T.8). Two figures added: T7 coincident versus non-coincident peak (T.5) and T8 the control hierarchy (T.11). Editorial: About-page title corrected; guiding-principle premise reworded for clarity; a dangling reference fixed; K1’s “Stability” step relabelled “Transient stability”; a Synthesis/Central Findings row added to the structure table; glued-word typos repaired. No conclusion changes. | About This Report; Key Takeaways; Technical Annex; Latest Updates |
| **v1.26** | **Jul 26, 2026** | Register and scope pass. The executive opening no longer says the flat-demand rules “no longer hold” (they still function) but that they “are no longer sufficient” for today’s large-load growth, and “essentially each major reliability institution” becomes “the major North American reliability institutions.” The siting-constraint claim is narrowed to “many hyperscale data-center developers.” Two “Planning implication” closers added, to T.1 and T.4, tying the engineering back to the main report. A glued-word typo repaired. No conclusion changes. | Executive Summary; Watch List; Technical Annex; Latest Updates |
| **v1.27** | **Jul 31, 2026** | §5: the Susquehanna and Crane record added from primary sources — the ER24-2172 rejection and its actual holding, the front-of-the-meter restructuring of both nuclear transactions, the November 2023 fallback event, and the June 1, 2026 transfer of 760 MW of Capacity Interconnection Rights from Eddystone to Crane. New Table 5B compares the two arrangements. The Figure 9 caption notes the network-service-plus-bilateral-contract configuration the figure omits. §4: the December 2022 west Texas event isolated in a note — delayed clearing, mixed load, and a name shared with NERC's Odessa IBR reports — with July 2024 northern Virginia stated as the ride-through archetype. §6: the Duke curtailment rates restated as shares of energy rather than of time (85/177/366 hours, 76/98/126 GW), and the study's own network-constraint limitation recorded. New subsection on who directs the curtailment; Finding 5 carries the trade-off. | Key Takeaways; Central Findings; §4; §5; §6; Catalog; References; Latest Updates |
| **v1.28** | **Aug 1, 2026** | The three items carried forward from v1.27, each verified against a primary document: Crane added to §2 as the case where deliverability rather than construction binds; the $140M Susquehanna cost-shift exchange added to §3, with Susquehanna’s forgone-revenue answer; and the December 2025 order’s express declination on jurisdiction over retail loads served through co-location added to §7. Correction in §5: the order directs a choice among four transmission services, three of them new, including an interim non-firm service the report had omitted. Editorial: sentence-length pass on the longest 14 sentences (worst 141 words), and a density pass on Synthesis. | Executive Summary; Key Takeaways; Synthesis; §2; §3; §5; §7; §9; International; Annex; References |
| **v1.29** | **Aug 1, 2026** | §2 gains a proposed-solutions bullet the Crane paragraph had left implicit — reuse of an existing interconnection position, grounded on Order No. 845 surplus interconnection service, with the Eddystone-to-Crane waiver as the worked case and two limits stated: the instrument reallocates deliverability rather than creating it, and surplus service ends with the agreement it depends on. Editorial: the §4 note opened with four pronouns in one sentence and now does not; Finding 5 drops “only” and “the one lever”, states the direction-of-control trade-off in a sentence, and sends the explanation to §6. | Central Findings; §2; §4; References |
| **v1.30** | **Aug 1, 2026** | Register pass on text added in v1.27–v1.29. Eleven corrections, none touching a finding. Removed: antithesis and chiasmus constructed for cadence in Finding 5 and §6; one literary allusion; commercial metaphor where the subject was a regulatory outcome rather than a transaction; and four vague predicates. The register standard is the one stated in the README — institutional assessment rather than journalism — and the corrected passages now state the finding directly. | Central Findings; §2; §4; §5; §6 |
| **v1.31** | **Aug 1, 2026** | Reviewer pass. Sourcing: the MISO 43% figure attributed to FERC's 2025 State of the Markets report (March 19, 2026) at first use, with the 24% national rate for scale and a statement that every occurrence draws on that one dataset; the PJM clearing-price series set out auction by auction, with the compressed 2025 calendar explained; the ERCOT 2.2 GW and ~9 GW figures distinguished as recent and cumulative in the Executive Summary; and the three EIA growth rates identified as coming from three products measuring three windows. Structure: the three forecasting families split into three paragraphs, and the Executive Summary's capacity-market paragraph divided. Register: two over-compressed sentences expanded. Typography: body paragraph spacing raised from 5 to 7 points against 13.2-point leading, after diagnosis showed the Executive Summary's three ideas already sat in three paragraphs and read as one only because the break was too faint. | Executive Summary; Federal Frame; §1; §3; Primer; References; render_pdf.py |
Table L1 — Revision history. One row per revision, with the sections touched. The blocks below expand each entry; the body already carries every change.
Sources: FERC; NERC; ERCOT; PJM; DOE, as listed in the Catalog of Orders, Rules, and Directives Cited.
v1.2 — developments of July 20–21, 2026#
The July 20 resource-adequacy reports came due, and two of the six were recovered in time for this revision — one from the filing itself, one from reporting of it. Taken together they are the first evidence of what FERC's regional route produces in practice, and the two answers point in different directions. CAISO reports no systemic generation-adequacy shortfall in California and attributes it to an integrated forecasting, procurement and planning framework; §2 carries that as a comment rather than a finding, since the region carries a fraction of the demand pressure and its procurement mandate is a feature of California's regulatory structure rather than a tariff term available to an RTO. MISO answers the same question in the opposite direction, and consistently with its position in the record: an expedited study process for large loads run outside the interconnection queue as the ERAS fast lane winds down, a non-firm transmission service option, and a published target of approval within 120 days once studies are complete. The region reporting no adequacy gap proposes least; the region with the fastest data-center growth proposes most. §2 now carries both. Two further developments are procedural. CAISO's published calendar ends in a November 16 filing and states that it assumes an abeyance, so two of the six regions now look likely to answer in mid-November rather than on August 17. And PJM's backstop procurement acquired dates — a window of September 10 to October 9, 2026 in the June 30 design paper, with cost allocated to the load additions that created the need — while the 2028/29 shortfall is now stated precisely at 6,831 MW against a 14.7% reserve margin. Neither item reverses a conclusion of the report. One narrows the geography of a finding; one qualifies the uniformity of the federal deadline, in the direction Section 7 already argued.
| Development | Date | Effect on this report | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| RTO/ISO resource-adequacy informational reports come due (EL26-67 – EL26-72) | Jul 20, 2026 | The 30-day filings required by the June 18 orders came due. CAISO's is read in §2; the other five had not reached public analysis at this revision. Confirms the timeline in §2 and adds the first on-the-record regional answer to the question of whether the queue can be served. | SETTLED |
| CAISO informational report (EL26-71) — no systemic California adequacy gap | Jul 20, 2026 | Reports no systemic generation-adequacy shortfall and attributes it to California's integrated forecasting, procurement and planning framework; commits further work to its own stakeholder initiative rather than arguing that none is needed. Recorded as a comment in §2: the region carries a fraction of the demand pressure, so the contrast with the auction regions is institutional rather than a counter-example. | SETTLED |
| MISO informational report (EL26-70) — out-of-queue study process and non-firm service | Jul 20, 2026 | The opposite answer to CAISO's, from the region with the fastest data-center growth: an expedited study process for large loads outside the interconnection queue as ERAS winds down, a non-firm transmission service option, and a 120-day approval target. Read from reporting of the filing and MISO's own programme materials; the filing itself was not retrieved. | LIKELY |
| PJM reliability backstop procurement acquires dates | Jun 30 / Jul 14, 2026 | Design paper sets a procurement window of Sep 10 – Oct 9, 2026 with cost allocated to the load additions that created the need; the 2028/29 shortfall is 6,831 MW against a 14.7% reserve margin. Puts dates on an instrument §2 and §3 had described without them. | SETTLED |
| ISO-NE and New England transmission owners announce they will seek a 90-day abeyance | Jun 29, 2026 | Qualifies the Federal Frame and Section 7: the show-cause orders were simultaneous but the responses will not be. An abeyance requested by Aug 3 and granted would move ISO-NE's substantive filing to roughly mid-November. FERC has said it will not grant abeyance as a matter of course, so the request tests how firm the common deadline is. | LIKELY |
Table L2 — Developments of July 20–21, 2026, and what each does to the report.
Sources: FERC show-cause orders of June 18, 2026 (EL26-67 through EL26-72); ISO New England compliance notice, June 29, 2026.
v1.21 — the reach of the voluntary commitments#
One addition to Section 3, prompted by a question the report had not answered directly: what the hyperscalers' own cost commitments actually reach. The Ratepayer Protection Pledge binds seven consuming companies, not the colocation developers who own much of the capacity in the queue and not the utilities that divide the costs — and even a willing payer is billed by a tariff that, under the Commission's long-standing transmission pricing policy, may recover the upgrade from everyone. Neither point changes a conclusion. Both sharpen why Section 3 treats the pro forma cost-recovery agreement, rather than any voluntary undertaking, as the deciding instrument.
Sources: The White House; Google; Harvard Electricity Law Initiative; Brookings.
v1.22 — editorial pass and a new annex section#
An editorial pass on reviewer comments, with one structural addition. The account of CAISO's July 20 filing was cut to a comment and restated: it reports no systemic adequacy shortfall and attributes that to California's integrated forecasting, procurement and planning framework, but it does not argue that no further reform is needed, and it commits the additional work to its own stakeholder initiative — a distinction the previous wording blurred. MISO's filing now leads the passage, which is the right order of importance. A duplicated PJM backstop entry on the near-term watch list was consolidated and two rows put back into date order. The confidence key gains a fourth tag, Speculative, for genuine forecasting: Emerging had been carrying proposals, forecasts and opinions at once, and the long-horizon watch-list items have been retagged accordingly. Figure D2's caption now ends on a bolded Finding line. And the technical annex gains T.11 on operational impacts — situational awareness and the EMS, ramping and dispatch, regulation and AGC, reserve deployment and the load-side contingency — the one subject area the report described in planning terms without ever reaching the control room. No conclusion changes.
v1.27 — the two arrangements behind Section 5#
Section 5 set out the co-location rules without naming the transactions that produced them. This revision adds that record from the primary documents. Three findings change how the section reads. The Susquehanna amended ISA was rejected for tracking PJM's generally applicable guidance rather than for any substantive defect, and expressly without prejudice, so the December 2025 order answers a question the Commission had declined to reach case by case. Both nuclear arrangements large enough to test co-location — Talen and Amazon at Susquehanna, Constellation and Microsoft at Crane — now take front-of-the-meter network service, and both settled on that structure before the replacement rate existed. And the Capacity Interconnection Rights adjustment that the December order treats as a write-down operates elsewhere as a transferable asset: the June 1, 2026 waiver moved 760 MW from Eddystone to Crane and advanced the restart by about three years. A November 2023 fallback event at Susquehanna, in which the co-located load drew from the grid for several hours during a unit outage, is added to the discussion of host unavailability as the only operating record the debate has.
Three further corrections followed on review. In Section 4, the December 2022 west Texas event now sits in a note of its own. It is the largest in the record and the least representative of it: the fault escalated to a three-phase fault caused by a breaker failure, so the clearing was not normal, and the load was mixed, with substantial losses from oil and gas facilities whose drives trip on undervoltage for reasons unrelated to the ITIC curve. The name compounded the difficulty, since NERC published its Odessa Disturbance reports about solar inverters rather than load; this report now calls the load event by its region. The July 2024 northern Virginia event is stated as the archetype the ride-through rules address. In Section 6, the Duke curtailment rates are restated on the basis the study actually uses — shares of annual energy, not of running time — which puts the hours in which some curtailment falls at 85, 177 and 366 rather than 22, 44 and 88, mostly as partial reductions, and the headroom at 76, 98 and 126 GW. The study's own first-listed limitation, that it does not model network constraints, is now recorded wherever the figure appears. And a new subsection distinguishes curtailment an operator calls from deferral the load schedules for itself, which is the trade-off Finding 5 now carries.
v1.1 — developments of July 13–17, 2026#
Four actions landed in five days, and all four point the same way the report already did: the reliability track (registration plus standards) now carries a federal directive and a hard deadline, while the political-economy track is hardening faster and less predictably than the tariff track. Nothing in this update reverses a conclusion of the original report. One item changes a confidence tag; one corrects a factual detail; two reinforce existing assessments.
| Development | Date | Effect on this report | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|
| FERC Docket RD26-7-000 — mandatory Reliability Standards and registration for computational loads | Jul 16, 2026 | Raises the standing of a central reliability reform. NERC must file standards AND Rules-of-Procedure registration criteria by Dec 31, 2026, plus a Phase II work plan by Mar 1, 2027. The obligation and its dates are now federal mandate, not NERC's internal plan. | SETTLED |
| PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction | Jul 14, 2026 | Second consecutive shortfall (~6.8 GW, widened from ~6.5 GW); cleared at the $325/MW-day cap; only ~525 MW of new generation cleared. Confirms §2's timeline gap and keeps §3's cost fuse lit. | SETTLED |
| New York statewide hyperscale moratorium takes effect | Jul 14, 2026 | Executive order pausing discretionary state environmental permits for facilities ≥50 MW for up to one year, pending a GEIS. Corrects §7, which had it as pending legislation. | SETTLED |
| White House moves to broaden the Ratepayer Protection Pledge | Mid-Jul 2026 | Convening utilities, developers, and governors around a wider voluntary pledge. Reinforces §7's read that voluntary federal signaling is not slowing state constraint. | EMERGING |
| *Trump v. Slaughter* (context; predates v1.0) | Jun 29, 2026 | Supreme Court overruled *Humphrey's Executor*; FERC's organic statute carries the same for-cause removal language. Does not alter FERC's authority — alters the independence backdrop behind §7. | SETTLED |
Table L3 — Developments of July 13–17, 2026, and what each does to the report.
Sources: FERC; NERC; ERCOT; PJM; DOE.
What the update changes, in one paragraph#
RD26-7-000 matters most, because it acts directly on a central reform in the current reliability program. The Synthesis identifies NERC registration, rather than any tariff, as the discipline that reaches a large load wherever it sits, including when it islands off-grid (§4, §8). Until July 16 that reform rested on NERC's own accelerated plan and was tagged Likely. It is now a federal directive with two dates attached, which moves the existence and timing of the obligation to Settled while leaving the registry threshold and the standard's substance genuinely open. The second PJM shortfall, meanwhile, is the first hard market evidence that the 2028–2031 stress window in §9 is materialising rather than remaining a forecast — and the New York moratorium, arriving by executive order in the same week as a broadened federal pledge, is §7's community-consent thesis playing out in real time.
Filing the next update#
Revisions within this publication cycle are numbered v1.21, v1.22 and so on, so that the second decimal marks an update to the current edition rather than a new one. Each adds one row to the revision-history table and one short block below it, using the same four fields: Development (the instrument, with docket or citation), Date, Effect on this report (which conclusion it strengthens, weakens, or corrects, stated plainly — including “no change”), and a confidence tag. The body edit should be made at the same time and marked in the revision-history row, so that this page always describes changes that have actually been integrated. Where an update contradicts a prior assessment, the original judgment should be left visible and dated rather than quietly overwritten — the value of a report in a fast-moving docket is partly the record of what looked true when.
Data in this version is current through July 21, 2026. The July 20 resource-adequacy reports and the July 24 ERCOT submissions have now come due; the August 3 abeyance requests and the August 17 show-cause responses fall within the next month, and either may change the picture materially.